Australian Open Men’s Singles Round 3 Odds & Picks

Canada's Denis Shapovalov reacting to winning a point on the court during a match at the Australian Open.

Canada’s Denis Shapovalov reacts after winning a point against Italy’s Jannik Sinner during the first round match at the Australian Open tennis championship in Melbourne, Australia, Monday, Feb. 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)
  • Round 3 of the Australian Open for the men’s singles play will get underway tonight at 9:45 PM ET
  • 16 matches will be played in the third round
  • Read below for the moneyline odds for each match, as well as a preview of three matches and where we see the best value

The 2021 Australian Open is well underway in Melbourne. The third round of men’s singles play will start tonight for us in North America, and continue to tomorrow with 16 matches on the slate. Winners of these matches will move on to the Round of 16.

See below for the moneyline odds for all 16 matches, as well as a preview for three matches with where we think the best value may be.

Australian Open Men’s Singles Round 3 Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Grigor Dimitrov/Pablo Carreno Busta -115/-107
Adrian Mannarino/Alexander Zverev +410/-560
Aslan Karatsev/Diego Schwartzman +210/-275
Pedro Martinez Portero/Dusan Lajovic +118/-148
Marton Fucsovics/Milos Raonic +420/-590
Dominic Thiem/Nick Kyrgios -435/+325
Denis Shapovalov/Felix Auger Aliassime -195/+155
Novak Djokovic/Taylor Fritz -5000/+1900
Cameron Norrie/Rafael Nadal +2000/-10000
Lloyd Harris/Mackenzie McDonald -130/+105
Andrey Rublev/Feliciano Lopez -3335/+1500
Filip Krajinovic/Daniil Medvedev +800/-1250
Stefanos Tsitsipas/Mikael Ymer -2500/+1200
Fabio Fognini/Alex De Minaur +390/-530
Karen Khachanov/Matteo Berrettini +163/-205
Casper Ruud/Radu Albot -345/+265

Odds taken Feb. 11th from DraftKings

Dimitrov vs Carreno Busta

This will be the seventh time the two 29-year olds have seen each other, with their head-to-head tied at 3-3. Dimitrov and Carreno Busta are very similar. Their ATP ranking hovers around the same, they are roughly the same height and weight, and both have a strong right handed forehand.

Dimitrov has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open this year, and defeated his second round opponent, Alex Bolt, 7(7)-6, 6-1, 6-2. He recorded 10 aces and won 81% of his first serves, while only having 18 unforced errors in comparison to his opponents 45.

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Carreno Busta had a bit of a tougher time getting past his second round opponent. It took just over two and a half hours, but he finally defeated Jiri Vesely 6-3, 7(7)-6(3), 2-6, 6-4. On paper it seems that Vesely had the upper hand with 36 aces, but he committed 33 unforced errors, where Carreno Busta only had 22. This is where the Spaniard was able to secure the win.

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This should be a close match between the two, but despite the wins, Carreno Busta has had a tough go in the tournament so far. Because of how Dimitrov has played this tournament so far, and his better record on hard courts, including having won all their previous matches that were on the hard surface, I think he’ll be the one to win.

Pick: Dimitrov in three sets (+390)

Shapovalov vs Auger Aliassime

It’ll be a battle between the two young Canadians. These two are obviously no stranger to each other. The countrymen will put their friendship aside for the day, and they compete against each other in the third round of the Australian Open. This will be the fourth time these two have played against each other, and Shapovalov holds the 2-1 edge, with the last match being at the 2019 US Open, where Shapovalov won in straight sets.

After a five set opening round match, Shapovalov found his footing in the second round, where he defeated Bernard Tomic 6-1, 6-3, 6-2, while recording 16 aces and converting 6 of 11 breakpoints.

Auger Aliassime has been playing impressive tennis over the course of the Grand Slam so far, not having dropped a set. He’s coming off his second round win against Australian James Duckworth, winning 6-4, 6-1, 6-2, where he recorded 19 aces.

These two players play a similar game. Big serves, big forehands. It does feel like the slightly older Canadian, Shapovalov has the slight edge, but don’t be surprised if Auger Aliassime is able to take a set off him.

Pick: Shapovalov in four sets (+320)

Khachanov vs Berrettini

These two players will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they face each other in the third round of the Aussie Open. Berrettini leads their head-to-head 3-0. All three of their meetings came in 2019, and Berrettini has only dropped one set in all three matches.

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19th seed Khachanov is coming off a straight set win against Ricardas Berankis, winning 6-2, 6-4, 6-4, where he recorded 12 aces, and 31 winners. 9th seed Berrettini beat his opponent Tomas Machac in his second-round match, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3.

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Berrettini has had an impressive start to 2021. His forehand power and serve have been his biggest strength. This tournament alone, he’s recorded 93 winners.

This match will truly be dependent on the two players’ serves. Berrettini’s serve is more powerful, but his second serve causes room for concern. Both players cover the court fairly well, and have a striking forehand. Berrettini has shown a little more control over his game.

I would look once again look beyond the moneyline for this game, as both players play similar. Berrettini will most likely take the match, but Khachanov should be able to take a set.

Pick: Berrettini in four sets (+330)

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