Eibar vs Valencia La Liga Round 31 Odds & Betting Preview

Valencia training

Valencia are eyeing a European spot ahead of their clash with Eibar. Photo by @Valenciacf_en (Twitter)
  • Eibar host Valencia on Thursday, June 25th in a clash that will impact the race for European places and the relegation fight
  • La Liga resumed on June 11 and both sides have eight matches left to play
  • Get the latest odds, betting discussion and a pick below

Valencia face Eibar at Ipurua on Thursday. It’s a match that will be closely watched by clubs up and down the league with Eibar occupying 17th, the final safe spot above the relegation zone, and Valencia looking to chase down Villarreal, Real Sociedad and Getafe to book a place in next season’s Europa League.

The two teams last met back in January. Valencia were 1-0 winners at the Mestalla in what was a relatively even match. It’s a theme that we saw last season too, with a pair of tightly fought matches ending in a 1-1 and a 0-0.

The odds table below shows the betting options for one of Thursday’s two La Liga matches.

Eibar vs Valencia Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Eibar pk (-101) +182 Over 2.5 (+105)
Valencia pk (-119) +156 Under 2.5 (-125)
Draw N/A +210 N/A

Odds taken Jun. 24

Away Form Relevance

Valencia are winless in six away La Liga matches. They own an ugly record away from the intimidating Mestalla all year long, winning just three of their 14 on the road in La Liga. Just 15 goals have been scored in 14 matches with 30 let in at the other end.

Eibar have seven wins this term. Six of them have come at home. They are, however, not on the best run in those matches, taking a solitary point from the last nine available.

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The respective form of these sides leads to Eibar having shorter odds than some bettors may have expected. There’s reason to question it too. Since major European leagues restarted, home advantage hasn’t been as important or, in some cases, has nearly disappeared.

Eibar’s compact ground is an outlier, the fans are close, the facilities are not what many footballers are accustomed to. Some of those factors still matter, but the absence of fans should play to Valencia’s advantage here and could help them get a result that defies their poor away record.

2020 La Liga Trophy Odds Tracker

Fighting for Their La Liga Future

A run of one win in 10 La Liga outings is cause for concern, of course, but Eibar have notched a couple of good results since the league restarted, drawing with Getafe and Athletic Bilbao after a 3-1 defeat to Real Madrid.

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Victories are the key if they are to pull away to safety, though those two performances will give hope they can pick up the necessary points in the coming weeks.

Understat’s expected goals model has Eibar underperforming to date and Valencia drastically overperforming. The table shows a chasm between these two sides, but the quality of chances created and conceded tells a different story.

Valencia own one of the worst defenses in the league, registering 48.91 expected goals against. Their clean sheet in their last match was their first in 11 outings in all competitions.

Previous meetings between the two have been tight. This will be tense, but both teams are vulnerable defensively.

Eibar vs Valencia La Liga Stats

17th Position 8th
31 Goals scored 41
47.6% Average possession 48.8%
73 yellows, 3 reds Cards 63 yellows, 6 reds
11.1 Shots per match 9
51% Shots inside the area 56%
32.27 Understat expected points 36.60

Lots to Consider

A solid case can be made for any bet. These two teams are closer than the league table suggests and despite the big names on the Valencia team sheet, they are very beatable. The fact this is being played in Eibar means something.

The previous meetings don’t make the ‘Over’ an obvious pick, but at +105 for Over 2.5, it looks a decent option here.

Pick: Over 2.5 total goals (+105)

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