- Italian giant Juventus hosts reigning Portuguese champion Porto on Tuesday (3 pm ET) in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 tie, with Porto leading 2-1 after a first-leg win in Portugal
- Juventus is in slightly better form since the first leg on Feb. 17, and is favored at -162 to advance from the matchup
- Get a breakdown of the two clubs, Tuesday’s matchup odds and a few value picks below
Though Porto does hold a 2-1 lead entering Tuesday’s clash in Turin, few pundits are giving the Portuguese side much of a shot at continuing on in the competition.
The gulf between the top of the Italian and Portuguese leagues in terms of talent and financial might is large, and that gap is reflected in Juve being significantly favored in the match (-225) and to advance (-162).
Porto has reached the Quarterfinal stage of the competition just once in the last five seasons, and twice in the last decade; Juventus has progressed to the same stage four times over the past six editions of the Champions League — and made a run to the Final twice in that span.
Tuesday’s clash will be the fourth in 10 days for both teams.
Juventus vs Porto Odds
|Juventus vs Porto||JUV -1.5 (+128) | POR +1.5 (-152)||JUV -225 | POR +575 | DRAW +370||Ov 2.5 (-137) | Un 2.5 (+112)|
Odds taken March 7th at DraftKings.
Juventus swept both legs of the only previous head-to-head meeting between the two clubs in this century, claiming a 3-0 win on aggregate (2-0 away, 1-0 home) in the Round of 16 back in 2016-17.
Juventus vs Porto Stats
|5-0-1 (1st, Group G)||2020-21 Champions League Group Stage||4-1-1 (2nd, Group C)|
|14 (2.33/game)||Goals scored (GS)||10 (1.67/game)|
|4 (0.67/game)||Goals conceded (GS)||3 (0.50/game)|
|Alvaro Morata (6)||Leading Scorer||Sergio Oliveira (3)|
|W – W – D – W – L||Overall Form||W – L – D – W – W|
|Lost R16 to Lyon||2019-20 Finish||Lost 3QR to Krasnodar|
|2-0-1||H2H Record Since 2007 (W-L-T)||1-0-2|
Juventus: Result Needed
While Juve’s recent strong wins — 3-0 over Spezia, and 3-1 over Lazio — have certainly bolstered the mood around Andrea Pirlo’s squad, the facts remain thus: The Bianconeri are seven points off the top of Serie A, and need a victory on Tuesday to advance in continental play.
The scoring Tuesday’s hosts require has been abundant in the domestic games since the 2-1 loss in Portugal, with one of Cristiano Ronaldo or Alvaro Morata finding the net in each of the team’s last four matches.
Juve will need goals, and Morata is fresh off a brace entering the must-win versus Porto.
Porto: Defensive Structure Critical
The reality for Porto is quite simple come Tuesday: Defend for 90 minutes and you’re into the Quarterfinal.
While Conceicao initially established a reputation as a pragmatic coach during the early days of his tenure at Porto, his side has struggled defensively at times even in domestic play this season.
Recent form is a mixed bag defensively, with just one clean sheet in the team’s last six outings across all competitions and disappointing multi-goal efforts against Braga (2-3) and Boavista (2-2).
Juventus vs Porto Best Bets
With a pressing need for goals and a result, expect Juventus to play an attacking, chance-happy brand of soccer Tuesday; backing frontman Alvaro Morata — already with six goals in seven matches this Champions League campaign — at slightly better than even money could be a strong play. His 50% shots-to-goals conversion rate is a tasty prospect.
In terms of the Juventus spread play at -1.5, available at a tantalizing +128, it comes down to whether you believe Porto will withstand the onslaught likely to come. A 1-nil Juve win would be enough for the hosts to advance on away goals, and a respectable result for the pragmatic Sergio Conceicao and his Dragoes — if they can hold out defensively.
Porto registered two clean sheets from three road matches in the group stage, but conceded three times at Manchester City (1-3) in its most comparable test to Juventus.
Taking Juventus to score and do what is necessary to advance seems like the right pick, based on historic progress in the competition, limited head-to-head contests and general squad talent.
Pick: Morata to Score (+110), Juventus -1.5 (+128)