NASCAR Odds: Hamlin favored at Homestead-Miami Speedway

The NASCAR season has begun with back-to-back first-time winners but will that trend continue when the Cup Series heads to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400?

Heading into the weekend, it is last year’s winner, Denny Hamlin, who is the favorite in the NASCAR odds at Homestead-Miami Speedway to pick up the checkered flag.

Online sportsbook Bovada has NASCAR odds for the Dixie Vodka 400 with Hamlin listed as the +450 chalk. He is followed closely by Chase Elliott at +550, Kevin Harvick at +550, Martin Truex Jr. at +600 and Kyle Larson at +750 to round out the top five drivers on the oddsboard.

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NASCAR Odds: Homestead-Miami Speedway Dixie Vodka 400

NASCAR Odds to Win the Dixie Vodka 400
Driver Odds
Denny Hamlin +450
Chase Elliott +550
Kevin Harvick +550
Martin Truex Jr. +600
Kyle Larson +750
Kyle Busch +800
Joey Logano +1000
Brad Keselowski +1200
Ryan Blaney +1400
Alex Bowman +2200
Christopher Bell +3300
Tyler Reddick +3300
William Byron +3300
Aric Almirola +4000
Austin Dillon +4000
Kurt Busch +4000
Chase Briscoe +6600
Cole Custer +6600
Matt DiBenedetto +6600
Darrell Wallace Jr. +8000
Erik Jones +10000
Ross Chastain +15000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +20000
Ryan Newman +20000
Chris Buescher +40000
Daniel Suarez +40000
Michael McDowell +40000
Anthony Alfredo +50000
Corey LaJoie +75000
Justin Haley +75000
Ryan Preece +75000
BJ McLeod +100000
Cody Ware +100000
James Davison +150000
Josh Bilicki +150000
Quin Houff +150000
Timmy Hill +150000

Odds as of February 25 at Bovada

Why is Hamlin the favorite in the NASCAR odds for the Dixie Vodka 400?

Often when it comes to NASCAR odds and NASCAR betting, the previous winner at a track will get listed as the chalk, and that’s exactly the case for this weekend’s race. Now, that’s not to say that Hamlin isn’t worthy of being the favorite at Homestead-Miami Speedway, picking up three victories in 16 career starts along with 11 top-10 finishes.

Additionally, the No. 11 car has started on the pole in five of the last six runnings at this track, including the last four in a row. That said, outside of last year’s victory, Hamlin has finished ninth or worse in his previous five starts at the 1.5-mile oval.

Denny Hamlin in 2021

Hamlin has had a hot start. He has won three of the four stages over the two races, he is the current points leader for the NASCAR Cup and he has two top-five finishes. Helping Hamlin out even further this week in the Dixie Vodka 400, he will be the first car to see the green flag as he is the pole sitter.

Everything makes sense for Hamlin to be listed as the pre-race favorite to win at Homestead-Miami, but there hasn’t been a repeat winner at this track in 15 years and I’m not confident that trend will be snapped this weekend.

NASCAR Predictions this week for the Dixie Vodka 400

As always, I will provide my two favorite NASCAR predictions along with a long-shot sleeper pick that is providing tremendous value.

Kyle Busch +800: Since the start of the pandemic, Busch simply hasn’t been the force that he was in the past. He claims the lack of testing and practice has really impacted him and he’s finished outside the top 10 in the first two races of the season. I think he’s a good shot to get back on track this weekend, though, as he has finished sixth or better in each of the last six runnings at Homestead-Miami, including two wins, and he has led at least one lap in all six.

Joey Logano +1000: Last week’s runner-up and the man who will be starting on the outside of Row 1 is providing excellent value. Logano had a rough go at Miami last year but before that had four top-five finishes in five races, including a victory in 2018. He has led multiple laps in four of the last six runnings at Homestead and at 10:1, he’s a great play.

Homestead-Miami Sleeper Pick

I had a bit of a hard time this week choosing a good sleeper pick at +2000 or greater because there wasn’t anyone jumping out at me. Tyler Reddick at +3300 has some intrigue but is starting near the rear of the field so it’s a stay-away for me.

Ryan Blaney +1400: Blaney led the second-most laps in last year’s running in Homestead-Miami with 70 and finished in third place. He finished outside the top 10 in his previous five runnings but qualified eighth or better in those starts as well. Was last year an aberration or did something finally click for the No. 12 machine? Starting 14th this week, I think he’s worth a shot at 14:1.

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