- Against sides from 20th place and above, Luton have played 17 away games and lost 15.
- Swansea have won 6 of 8 meetings at home to the bottom 9.
- The Hatters have conceded 2+ goals in 14 away defeats this season.
- Luton have conceded exactly 3 goals in 8 away defeats.
Swans ignite playoff hopes
Swansea made the brightest return to action of any Championship side as they put three goals past Middlesbrough on Saturday. They looked much improved in their victory, which has lifted hopes of the Swans sneaking into the top six this season. With the sides in sixth and seventh meeting this weekend, this is the perfect time for the Welsh side to clash with Luton.
The visitors boosted Swansea’s top six hopes with their 1-1 draw against Preston on Saturday. However, they still slipped bottom of the Championship due to results elsewhere. The Hatters have a lot of work to do in order to move to safety, especially following their awful record on the road this season.
Luton’s travel troubles
The Hatters come into this game with the worst away record in the league. Luton have collected just four points in their last 14 away Championship matches (W1 D1 L12). While the relevance of that is up for debate in a game with no fans, it’s certainly a trek for the visitors to get to Wales for this early kick-off. On top of that, they’re playing a side who prey on poor teams at home.
Swansea have played eight of the bottom nine at home, winning six of those clashes. Meanwhile, Luton have won at two of the bottom four this season, losing 15 of 17 games against teams above that. They’ve conceded plenty of goals in that time, averaging 2.3 against per trip.
Swansea City have won their last three league matches against Luton, scoring five goals and conceding once. Of their 15 away defeats, they conceded two or more goals in 14 of those. Given that they head to a Swansea side who look like they have renewed attacking intent after the weekend, we are worried about Nathan Jones’s side here. We’re going with a heavy defeat for the visitors in our predictions.
Swans can take off
Luton Town have won just one of their last 13 away league visits to Swansea (W1 D3 L9). Current records suggest that will be extended, as Swansea have lost just one of their last nine home Championship games (W4 D4), a 3-2 defeat to Derby in February. Even in that game they managed to find the net twice, while Luton have conceded 21 goals at the sides who sit above Swansea this term.
Andre Ayew has impressed at this level and his return of 13 goals has helped to push Swansea into the playoff chase. One of those strikes proved to be a winner for the Swans in their visit to Luton and we see him getting among the goals once again when they host the league’s worst travellers. We’re backing him to score here, while Swansea also have Rhian Brewster looking bright. That has us adding over 1.5 Swansea goals to our predictions. Meanwhile, Luton have conceded three goals exactly in over half of their away losses, so we’re backing a fourth 3-1 defeat of the season for the Hatters away from home.